Over Friday night, large storms ripped across the city, heavy rainfall and violent thunderstorms either disturbed our sleep or deepened it. And this weather is expected to continue all through today, and on into Sunday Morning. Here is the full report from WSFA:




Round 1 (Saturday morning and afternoon): A line of thunderstorms capable of producing strong to damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period (12Z) across southeastern LA/MS into southwestern AL and perhaps the western FL Panhandle. This line should move eastward through the morning and early afternoon hours as an initial southwesterly low-level jet advances eastward as well while slowly weakening. Low to mid 60s surface dewpoints, modest diurnal heating downstream of the convective line, strong effective bulk shear, and enlarged low-level hodographs will likely support the continuation of a damaging wind and tornado threat through Saturday afternoon. Although instability should decrease with eastward extent, these threats may extend to the SC/GA and northern FL Atlantic Coast, and wind/tornado probabilities have been expanded eastward accordingly. Confidence in this scenario is reasonably high given current observational/radar trends, and general consensus amongst the majority of convection-allowing model guidance.

Round 2 (Saturday afternoon and evening, possibly continuing overnight): With the approach of the southwestern CONUS upper trough and strong mid-level jet, convection should develop by late Saturday afternoon into early Saturday evening across AR and northern LA. Steep mid-level lapse rates would favor large hail with initial discrete development (some larger than 2 inches in diameter) and with time a line of storms may develop across parts of the Mid-South. Although this is far from certain, if linear consolidation occurs, then damaging winds could become the main threat into eastern MS, western AL, and perhaps southwestern TN. In addition, a tornado or two may also be possible given low-level winds veering with height that are expected to strengthen through the evening, although surface dewpoints may struggle to reach much above the low 60s. Overall, confidence in thunderstorms developing across this region is relatively high, but the exact placement, timing, and convective mode are much less clear.

Round 3 (Saturday night into early Sunday morning): In the wake of earlier convection, airmass recovery with southerly surface winds and a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet may allow for renewed thunderstorm development Saturday night into early Sunday morning across parts of southern AL into the FL Panhandle and western GA. NAM forecast soundings across this region would support the potential for all severe hazards with these thunderstorms if they develop. Confidence in the details of this scenario are low.


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